Can Ranker Data Tell Us Who Will Win 2020’s “Best Picture”?
Hollywood loves these nine nominees, but what about the rest of America? Our crowdsourced rankings reveal how movie fans really feel — and they might even be able to predict a winner
NOTE: We called it! Read on to learn the method behind the (100% accurate) madness that led us to correctly predict that Parasite would win the 2020 Oscar for Best Picture.
Every year, there are eight or nine different movies nominated for the most prestigious award in film: the Academy Award for Best Picture. And each year, that list of eight or nine nominees is something of a mixed bag for everyday movie fans. There are high-minded independent movies that wow critics, but bore audiences; there are also crowd-pleasers that make tons at the box office, but have reviewers rolling their eyes. And every year, there’s plenty of ink spilled (and money spent) trying to predict which side of that spectrum will end up being favored by the Academy.
Ranker knows how real movie fans feel about these nominees better than anyone. Thousands of readers have cast their votes for the year’s best films, which gives us tremendous insight into which ones are most popular, who likes each nominee best, and even which movies has the best chance of winning it all at the end of the night. Read on to find out how movie fans feel about each of this year’s nine nominees (listed below in alphabetical order), and to see who we predict will ultimately take home Oscar gold.
NOTE: To gauge fans’ love of each nominee, we considered the position that each one of them holds on our list of The Best Movies of 2019. Because this list is very competitive, the rankings mentioned in this blog post may change after publication.
1917
Photo: Universal Studios
This WWI epic from Skyfall director Sam Mendes is ranked #8 on our list of “The Best Movies of 2019,” third among Best Picture nominees on that list. Interestingly enough, though, 1917 tends to do even better on more specific 2019 lists. It’s #1 on both the list of the year’s Best Period Films and our 2019 Best Movies Based on True Events list. Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood is behind 1917 on both these lists, despite being ranked higher (#6) on the overall 2019 list.
Things are still very close, but what this tells us is that Ranker fans see 1917 first as a genre movie — a period piece about the First World War — and second as a serious work of art on the level of something that an auteur like Quentin Tarantino would produce.
Ford v. Ferrari
Photo: 20th Century Studios
Despite its A-list stars, Matt Damon and Christian Bale (the latter of which is our #3 Best Actor Working Today), Ford vs. Ferrari sits relatively low on our list of the year’s best movies at #35, eighth place among the nine nominees. It does better on less competitive lists like The Best Date Movies Out Now, where it’s #13, or The Most Anticipated Movies of Fall 2019, where it ranks at #19. Still, it’s low on genre-specific lists focused on movies about cars or racing, and it’s currently dead last on the list of Best Matt Damon Movies. Whatever the Academy might think of Ford v. Ferrari, it’s just not a major hit among the film fanatics who read Ranker.
The Irishman
Photo: Netflix
Martin Scorsese’s 3.5-hour-long historical epic The Irishman was a critical smash hit, netting an impressive 96% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes. For Ranker readers, it’s somewhere in the middle of all the great movies made this year — it’s #16 on our 2019 movies list, sitting in 5th place among Best Picture nominees. It’s also somewhere close to halfway down the list of all Martin Scorsese’s movies (#21 of 37) and the list of best collaborations between Scorsese and Robert De Niro (#5 of 10).
Ranker fans love Scorsese — he’s #2 on our list of the best living directors, and his previous films tended to do much better on their respective lists of best movies that year. The fact that this one isn’t so high up on 2019’s overall list suggests that The Irishman’s slower pace, morbid themes, and considerable length make it less appealing to voters than classics like The Departed or Goodfellas.
Jojo Rabbit
Photo: Fox Searchlight Pictures
It’s hard for a new movie to climb its way up Ranker lists full of fan favorites, especially new movies that challenge genre tropes like Jojo Rabbit does. But those difficulties aside, we can’t say much about fans of this warm WWII satire because, well, not many people seem to be interested in voting for it. It sits at a ho-hum 31st place on the list of best movies this year, making it the seventh favorite Best Picture nominee for Ranker voters this year. And the only other notable ranking it has is last place on a list of 220 movies about the second World War (though we imagine that will change as time goes on). Ranker voters seem to either think the movie is just okay, or would rather ignore it completely.
Joker
Photo: Warner Bros.
Joker is far and away the favorite nominee among Ranker’s readers. It’s their number two pick for Best Movie of 2019 behind Avengers: Endgame, though both of them have taken turns at the top of this highly competitive list since Joker was released last October. It’s their number one favorite movie starring powerhouse actor Joaquin Phoenix. It’s even their fifth favorite date movie still out in theaters. (okay, we like the movie, too, but…are you guys okay?)
So who is it that loves Joker? Pretty much everyone but critics, it seems! (the movie has a so-so 69% Tomatometer score) It’s the #1 drama movie of 2019, the #1 thriller movie of 2019 — it even tops the list of best movies about stand-up comedians!
Little Women
Little Women wowed critics with exceptional performances by Florence Pugh, Emma Watson, Saoirse Ronan, and Timothée Chalamet. It also garnered plenty of attention for its direction by Lady Bird’s Greta Gerwig. But Ranker voters weren’t as hot on the movie (in the past they’ve been harsh on period piece nominees like Phantom Thread and Brooklyn), placing it at number 21 on the overall 2019 list and at #6 among Best Picture nominees.
The people most likely to be drawn to the movie fall into two camps: those who love female directors and those who appreciate period films. It’s ranked fourth on our list of the Best Period Films of this year. It’s also the #1 entry on the list of Best Movies Directed by Women this year, beating both Hustlers and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
Marriage Story
Photo: Netflix
Nothing demonstrates the gap between critics and your average viewer better than Marriage Story. Noah Baumbach’s latest movie has a 95% Rotten Tomatoes score (second only to The Irishman), yet is the least favorite Best Picture nominee among Ranker voters at #41 on the list of Best Movies of 2019. The movie had three times more downvotes than upvotes on this list at the time this blog post was written.
That being said, Marriage Story enjoys much better rankings on other lists. It’s our readers’ third favorite drama of 2019, and was voted the #3 Best Netflix Original Movie of all time, well ahead of The Irishman. What does this say about fans of Marriage Story? It seems that those who enjoy emotional stories about everyday people experiencing everyday tragedies really love it (our “Best Netflix Original Movies” list tends to favor romantic comedies and dramas), while movie fans writ large tend to get behind movies with fantasy worlds and plenty of action (Ranker lists of best movies made in any given year tend to favor big-budget superhero flicks, especially in the last decade). That would also explain why Little Women wasn’t as popular among our readers as films like 1917 and Joker.
Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Taking the #6 spot on Ranker’s list of best movies this year, Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood sits comfortably in second place among Best Picture nominees. Tarantino’s ninth film is also #2 on our list of best movies about Los Angeles, second only to the director’s best-known movie, Pulp Fiction. Finally, it’s also considered by our readers to be the #2 drama of the year, right behind Joker.
Very similar to The Irishman, Once Upon a Time is quieter, slower, and less violent than what we’re used to seeing from its director. But Tarantino’s latest film got a slightly chillier reception from critics than Scorsese’s, getting an 85% Rotten Tomatoes score compared to The Irishman's 96%. The fact that Once Upon a Time did notably better on our list than The Irishman is only further proof of the opposing relationship between film critics and everyday movie audiences.
Parasite
Photo: CJ Entertainment
You might not expect a foreign film to be a favorite among American film audiences — after all, it’s pretty rare that a movie that wasn’t produced in the U.S. is nominated for Best Picture. But Parasite surprised us by nearly cracking this year’s top ten, sitting at #11 on the list of Best Movies of 2019 and #4 among nominees on that list. Unsurprisingly, it’s also the number one foreign film released this year, according to Ranker readers.
One possible explanation for this movie’s popularity is that it was relatively easy to see in theaters — and everyone loves feeling cultured enough to watch a foreign film without going to the trouble of finding a hole-in-the-wall theater that’s screening it. That would also explain why a movie that could win the biggest prize in film is also number one on the list of Best Movies No One Saw in 2019.
And the Oscar Goes to…
Photo: Flickr
We took a look at the Ranker lists of best movies to come out for each respective year going back to 2013. If you separate the movies that were nominated for Best Picture that year and put them in order, you’ll find that in almost every case, the movie that ultimately won was somewhere close to the middle of the list. The Shape of Water, Birdman, and 12 Years a Slave were all the fourth most popular nominee among Ranker voters for their respective years. Moonlight came in third in 2016, Spotlight was sixth in 2015, and The Green Book was fifth last year. For each of these years, only eight or nine movies have been nominated for the award.
Assuming this trend continues, it’s almost impossible that the movies at either the top or bottom of this list will win Best Picture. It seems the Academy prefers to split the difference between blockbusters beloved by audiences everywhere and critical favorites that the greater public ignores.
The order of nominees on this year’s list is:
Joker
Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
1917
Parasite
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Ford v. Ferrari
Marriage Story